Showing Down

The problem with good (but not great hands) on the flop is that you often have to take them to showdown, even when you suspect you're beat. And paying off sucks.

The idea is that if you're involved in a 10 big bet pot, you only need to win 1 in 10 times for the hand to be worth one more bet on the river. Fine. Easy enough.

The more difficult situation is on the turn, when you're facing a check-raise. Or a turn re-raise. And then there's the river, which sucks because river raises are rarely bluffs.

So I find myself in these situations constantly -- I know I have to be pretty damn sure to be able to fold a decent hand in a large pot, but calling down makes the baby Jesus cry. I'd love it if I could be the one doing the raising (as is usually the case) but sometimes all you can do is call and hope. It seems so weak.

Then again, it feels great when you do catch that chance that your opponent is bluffing and take down a large pot with a weak hand. I know Dan Harrington was writing about tournament no limit hold em when he says opponents are bluffing as much as 10 percent of the time, but I think that estimate generally applies to limit poker as well.

What gives me a hard time is having faith in the math. I know how to do the math. You add the probability that your opponent is bluffing to the chance that your hand is best. Then you compare that percentage to the size of the pot, and if your bet cost is a smaller percentage of the pot than your chance of winning, than you can call every time if your estimates are anywhere near accurate.

I still hate it though. It always feels like I'm throwing away money in those low percentage situations. I make the call, because I know folding is wrong (especially against maniacs), but I won't like it.