Wednesday, February 09, 2005

What are the odds?

Let's talk about odds, because who doesn't love math?

I was having a hard time understanding why you would call with AJo in a three-way raised pot on the flop. If I only had six outs, it seemed like that wasn't enough to continue.

Conversations of the topic are here:
Understanding pot odds
Basic question about flop play in a raised pot


These discussions were very educational.

Here's what I learned:

1) I was calculating my chances of winning incorrectly because I insist on using percentages instead of ratios. For example, if the pot has seven bets and it's one to call, the odds are 7:1, but the percentage is 1/8.

2) There's a seemingly simpler way to count outs in the first discussion thread. It involves multiplying bets times outs, and if that number is greater than the number of unseen cards, then the odds are justified to continue with the hand.

3) It probably doesn't matter much that I miscalculated by a couple of percentage points. Post-flop play is much more important.

But I think this is an important topic, even if the exact percentages are not.

This kind of discussion deals with how you think about the game.

Perhaps by using percentages rather than ratios, I was slowing myself down at the tables and showing hesitation.

Maybe it's helpful to count bets in terms of units instead of money to help my attentiveness toward the game. (For example, the pot has five big bets instead of saying the pot has $10).

Mindset and reasoning are crucial to quality poker play, and a new counting method can only help me think of situations in a new way.

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